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Post by Clinton Cool on Mar 25, 2020 8:43:08 GMT
If civilisation survives this what will life look like afterwards? My prediction:
Globalisation will be finished. Air travel will continue but only the very rich will be able to afford it.
Creeping increasing regulation will end. This will enable taxes to be kept at a level acceptable to the public. They will increase, but won't need to double, which would be the case in a highly regulated post corona virus society. It will also enable prices to be kept at affordable levels.
The welfare state will be scaled back. More onus will be put on individuals to manage their own destinies, the concept of families helping each other will return.
The price of most things will reduce by 40-50%. Houses by 60-70%.This will enable countries to rely less on imported goods as they will be able to be manufactured competitively more locally. Wages will reduce by 50-60%.
Credit will be strictly limited. This will reduce the demand for consumer goods. The car industry will be devastated. No longer will people be able to lease new cars. Cars and other things will be repaired when needed, rather than thrown away for a new one.
Governments will finally realise that they can't spend more than they earn, in times of relative plenty.
The value of personal pensions will reduce by around 80%. Similarly, the state pension payment will be slashed.
The concept of extreme wealth will be repugnant to the public. No longer will footballers, actors etc. earn huge sums. They will earn more than average, but not significantly so.
Governments around the world will look inwards, not outwards. They will realise that they are elected to look after the interests of their voters, above anything else. If a country has insufficient resources for the amount of people who live there, not so many people will live there, naturally. Future consumption (at much lower levels of course) will be sustainable, the environmental emergency will be solved.
What's your prediction?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 25, 2020 8:47:34 GMT
That sounds like a great outcome but I reckon within a year or two it will be back to how it was last month.
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Post by Telemachus on Mar 25, 2020 8:54:08 GMT
Obviously it depends on how long it goes on for, and how many die. China is starting to recover, with transport links to the worst affected areas being re-established. That is about 3 months since it started. If we are getting back to a degree of normality in 3 months then I canβt see how the virus could cause a radical change. Itβs just a 3 month hiatus, after which there will be massive demand for almost everything. I canβt see it being anything like the game-changer that, say, WW2 was.
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Post by peterboat on Mar 25, 2020 9:16:08 GMT
I dont think we will get off so lightly as China, as the Cinese curse says may you live in interesting times! I think those times are here and now
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Post by JohnV on Mar 25, 2020 9:45:11 GMT
I suspect that ricco might be closer than Nick although I don't think it will be quite as bad as his picture. The cost (and debt) is going to be massive. The last time this country spent "as much as is needed" was WW2 and remember it wasn't until 2006 before we finished paying off that debt. I think we might be heading for a "grey time" a rather impoverished few years and I think it is going to come as quite a shock to a lot of people.
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Post by patty on Mar 25, 2020 10:09:05 GMT
It may die down in the summer months as viruses are normally not so active then But come November will reemerge with a vengeance ..hopefully we will be nearer to a vaccine by then
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Post by Deleted on Mar 25, 2020 10:27:40 GMT
I think it is going to come as quite a shock to a lot of people. It seems to be about time. It's mad how much value there is in the debt economy. I don't really understand why it has to be like that but 85% of new passenger vehicles are financed. ie on debt. It's completely crazy arrangement. If it got hit, hard, that would be a good thing for the future. People should live within their means rather than just constantly buying new stuff. What's that saying "using time you don't have to do work you don't enjoy to earn money you don't need to buy things you don't want to impress people you don't like". Or something like that. If it does have a dramatic effect on people's ability to live a normal life (oh dear no range rover Evoque darling) then government would have to step in and support people in a limited way. I reckon it'll just be a blip though.after which the rich will get richer the poor will get poorer and the rest will do more or less what they did before.
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Post by lollygagger on Mar 25, 2020 10:36:43 GMT
It may die down in the summer months as viruses are normally not so active then But come November will reemerge with a vengeance ..hopefully we will be nearer to a vaccine by then But that's really because people don't cramp up together with the windows shut in the summer. This summer could be different if everyone has just been let loose to "bring on" the next wave. Personally I think we'll middle through then within 6 months of whenever that is everyone will have forgotten the lessons learned. If the economy is a massive problem, house prices will plummet, not rise.
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Post by Trina on Mar 25, 2020 10:43:32 GMT
Can you guess when we'd just put our house on the market ?π€π
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Post by JohnV on Mar 25, 2020 10:46:40 GMT
Can you guess when we'd just put our house on the market ?π€π that truly is sods law in action ......ouch !!!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 25, 2020 10:55:57 GMT
Sadly there may be fewer of us ... but over 10,000 die per week in England and Wales in normal times so that's not new.
I hope we'll all be a little kinder ... appreciate more the benefits of modern life and how fragile they can be ... be a little more considerate and understanding of our 'fellow passengers to the grave' ...
be a little less willing to always think the worst of others ... and be a little more willing to accept and appreciate that friends and family are the only 'wealth' that counts in the final analysis .
Rog
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Post by peterboat on Mar 25, 2020 12:45:06 GMT
It may die down in the summer months as viruses are normally not so active then But come November will reemerge with a vengeance ..hopefully we will be nearer to a vaccine by then Patty its warm in Italy, Spain, Australia and it not going away there so I hold out no hope for this Chinese made virus going away any time soon
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Post by lollygagger on Mar 25, 2020 12:49:22 GMT
It may die down in the summer months as viruses are normally not so active then But come November will reemerge with a vengeance ..hopefully we will be nearer to a vaccine by then Patty its warm in Italy, Spain, Australia and it not going away there so I hold out no hope for this Chinese made virus going away any time soon Has Trump taken over your account? Who cares where it came from, it's of no practical use to blame anyone, it is what it is at this point. If we get back to stability, that's a better time for a witch hunt.
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Post by Clinton Cool on Mar 25, 2020 13:42:02 GMT
It may die down in the summer months as viruses are normally not so active then But come November will reemerge with a vengeance ..hopefully we will be nearer to a vaccine by then Patty its warm in Italy, Spain, Australia and it not going away there so I hold out no hope for this Chinese made virus going away any time soon Peter are you suggesting that this virus was deliberately planted by the Chinese and allowed to spread to the extent that it was guaranteed that it would spread around the world, the Chinese knowing that they could contain it after that while it would run amok in more liberal countries, straddling the rest of the world with huge debts, financed by the Chinese, secured on the assets of these other countries, enabling China to complete their world financial domination in double quick time? Or is that a conspiracy theory too far.
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Post by phil70 on Mar 25, 2020 14:12:33 GMT
I am kinda on the side of Peter, too much of a coincident but we will never know will we? Phil
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