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Post by lollygagger on May 1, 2020 18:22:40 GMT
People catching the virus is going down so it needs a boost so that herd immunity can be gained in the absence of a vaccine. Around here the Eastern europeans are still acting as if nothing is wrong ........until some caught it, now they are walking around wearing masks, forgetting that holding hands can pass the virus to. The Asians arnt to much better, I pass through an estate when going to the allotment they are all stood around in groups and all the kids are playing on the street so its no surprise really that BAME are taking a high percentage of deaths. But we are not buying into the herd immunity thing though are we (genuine question)? That said without a vaccine or some form of reliable treatment I suppose there is no option, although I think/hope there will be a break through on the treatment front sooner rather than later. The trick will then be mass producing and deploying it. The vaccine isn't even a done deal in a year's time. The herd immunity has always been the intention, just not all catching it the same week!
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 18:27:55 GMT
But we are not buying into the herd immunity thing though are we (genuine question)? That said without a vaccine or some form of reliable treatment I suppose there is no option, although I think/hope there will be a break through on the treatment front sooner rather than later. The trick will then be mass producing and deploying it. The vaccine isn't even a done deal in a year's time. The herd immunity has always been the intention, just not all catching it the same week! And with absolutely no idea of what/how long immunity means. Such a great idea...
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Post by lollygagger on May 1, 2020 18:30:12 GMT
The vaccine isn't even a done deal in a year's time. The herd immunity has always been the intention, just not all catching it the same week! And with absolutely no idea of what/how long immunity means. Such a great idea... And the other choice is?
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Post by Mr Stabby on May 1, 2020 18:34:36 GMT
All this reminds me of the late 1980s when we were solemnly told by our televisions that "By the early 1990s, every family in the country will be touched by AIDS".
Yes, I did actually hear those very words.
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 18:36:25 GMT
And with absolutely no idea of what/how long immunity means. Such a great idea... And the other choice is? Well we could have gone for an earlier lockdown but lets ignore that.
We could have increased our capacity for testing far earlier but lets ignore that.
We could as well of building up test capacity have built up a significant 'track and trace' system to go live on Monday but lets ignore that.
Let us rely on hope instead.
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Post by JohnV on May 1, 2020 19:21:14 GMT
Well we could have gone for an earlier lockdown but lets ignore that.
We could have increased our capacity for testing far earlier but lets ignore that.
We could as well of building up test capacity have built up a significant 'track and trace' system to go live on Monday but lets ignore that.
Let us rely on hope instead.
and not one of those things is any use at all because the virus would still be out there in the world waiting for a come back earlier lockdown ..... why when there is no disease around and then at what level of disease do you start .... very easy for an armchair expert to pontificate with the completely meaningless term "earlier" ...................... Earlier than when, Christmas ? start building up our testing earlier ...... again very easy to say with your superb 20/20 hindsight build up a track and trace system to go live Monday ...... you obviously live in a dream world. The number of personnel required for a system to cover 66 million people is huge and you have to find them, recruit them, train them , supply them with documentation (and check their suitability ie regarding criminal records etc) and get them kitted out with all the gear they need. The places that have done it well are ones that have a very high number of police per capita and a more tightly controlled, regulated and most importantly documented population. huh don't know why I let myself bother with replying to you ...... I think it's the first time .... I normally just ignore
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 19:28:16 GMT
Well we could have gone for an earlier lockdown but lets ignore that.
We could have increased our capacity for testing far earlier but lets ignore that.
We could as well of building up test capacity have built up a significant 'track and trace' system to go live on Monday but lets ignore that.
Let us rely on hope instead.
and not one of those things is any use at all because the virus would still be out there in the world waiting for a come back earlier lockdown ..... why when there is no disease around and then at what level of disease do you start .... very easy for an armchair expert to pontificate with the completely meaningless term "earlier" ...................... Earlier than when, Christmas ? start building up our testing earlier ...... again very easy to say with your superb 20/20 hindsight build up a track and trace system to go live Monday ...... you obviously live in a dream world. The number of personnel required for a system to cover 66 million people is huge and you have to find them, recruit them, train them , supply them with documentation (and check their suitability ie regarding criminal records etc) and get them kitted out with all the gear they need. The places that have done it well are ones that have a very high number of police per capita and a more tightly controlled, regulated and most importantly documented population. I'll answer your first point with a question - do you think the current 'peak' of infections/deaths followed after the lockdown/was the result of lockdown/would have happened despite lockdown? Feel free to give another answer if you wish to.
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Post by Mr Stabby on May 1, 2020 19:29:12 GMT
With approx. 200000 reported breaches of the lockdown rules to the cops, would you snitch up your friends or neighbours if you saw them blatantly flouting the rules?
Yes, because basically I've always fantasised about being an east German in the 1960s.
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Post by Boaty on May 1, 2020 19:39:04 GMT
So the only option is what? I will hang my hat on a vaccine irrespective of what others might think. But failing that what - just ignore it, let it go and see what happens perhaps with a nod to some lax social distancing rules? My guess, track and trace will come on stream followed by a vaccine. In the meantime the lockdown will persist at varying levels dependent upon infection rates and spread.
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Post by JohnV on May 1, 2020 19:40:16 GMT
The whole and only point of having a lockdown is to control the peak so that it is below the maximum capacity of the health service to manage.
any more and the death toll rises due to the inability to give the best treatment.
keeping the infection level going (but not exponential) delays and keeps the numbers manageable this is just a way of gaining time to develop treatments and hopefully a vaccine.while continuing allowing the virus to gradually build up (what is hoped to be) herd immunity
All routes are just best guesses ..... there may be no treatment, no vaccine and no herd immunity ..... in which case the prospects are not very good for anyone
locking the whole country down and making every arrival go into quarantine for two weeks (irrespective of nationality) would? might stop it getting into the country (remember illegal immigration) but you would have to do it for years if not decades and civilisation would not survive that
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Post by Trina on May 1, 2020 19:41:04 GMT
Our verrrrrrry loud next door neighbours(moved in in Feb after our quiet,lovely neighbours left)-went out before 5pm.Yes,I was peering out of the window before 'Pointless' started.Thought it was odd as the two kiddies were in jamas & dressing gowns.They cannot be still shopping,so can only imagine they are visiting folk-not what they should be doing !Sorry if I sound like Blakey,but these folk annoy me.They come back from Asda with bags of shopping,but then have freebie shopping delivered(more than once)especially as the man is working very long days as a driver 5 days a week.There are a number of 80+ and 90 + folk in the road who are not getting the same care.Some folk really know how to play the system.😡
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 19:43:54 GMT
The whole and only point of having a lockdown is to control the peak so that it is below the maximum capacity of the health service to manage. any more and the death toll rises due to the inability to give the best treatment. keeping the infection level going (but not exponential) delays and keeps the numbers manageable this is just a way of gaining time to develop treatments and hopefully a vaccine.while continuing allowing the virus to gradually build up (what is hoped to be) herd immunity All routes are just best guesses ..... there may be no treatment, no vaccine and no herd immunity ..... in which case the prospects are not very good for anyone locking the whole country down and making every arrival go into quarantine for two weeks (irrespective of nationality) would? might stop it getting into the country (remember illegal immigration) but you would have to do it for years if not decades and civilisation would not survive that OK we are not far from agreeing that the essential point of lockdown is to limit the R number - do you agree?
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Post by Mr Stabby on May 1, 2020 19:45:04 GMT
So the only option is what? I will hang my hat on a vaccine irrespective of what others might think. But failing that what - just ignore it, let it go and see what happens perhaps with a nod to some lax social distancing rules? My guess, track and trace will come on stream followed by a vaccine. In the meantime the lockdown will persist at varying levels dependent upon infection rates and spread. Well, scientists have been searching for a cure for coronavirus for as long as I've been alive and they haven't found one yet so what makes you think the next few months will be different?
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Post by JohnV on May 1, 2020 19:51:26 GMT
So the only option is what? I will hang my hat on a vaccine irrespective of what others might think. But failing that what - just ignore it, let it go and see what happens perhaps with a nod to some lax social distancing rules? My guess, track and trace will come on stream followed by a vaccine. In the meantime the lockdown will persist at varying levels dependent upon infection rates and spread. Well, scientists have been searching for a cure for coronavirus for as long as I've been alive and they haven't found one yet so what makes you think the next few months will be different? mind you Vince, they have a lot more pressure on them now (and money and facilities) than there was to cure a winter cold. (as well there have been some incredible developments in the understanding of viruses recently)
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Post by Boaty on May 1, 2020 19:58:09 GMT
So the only option is what? I will hang my hat on a vaccine irrespective of what others might think. But failing that what - just ignore it, let it go and see what happens perhaps with a nod to some lax social distancing rules? My guess, track and trace will come on stream followed by a vaccine. In the meantime the lockdown will persist at varying levels dependent upon infection rates and spread. Well, scientists have been searching for a cure for coronavirus for as long as I've been alive and they haven't found one yet so what makes you think the next few months will be different? I'm human, I have to believe in something positive. Just because something has been in the past does not mean it will be so in the future. I truly believe that and that is why I will continue to support the lockdown fully.
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