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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2020 22:49:40 GMT
Boris said the R is currently between .5 and .9. Might sound like a tiny difference, only .4, but it's actually a difference of either 45% or 80%, depending on which way you look at it. In other words they have no idea what the R is, but as the number of infections seems to be coming down, the R is likely below 1. All this means that the R is meaningless. Rate of infection goes up? bad. Rate of infection goes down? good. Simples.
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2020 22:56:45 GMT
Exactly. Today R value is either .05 or 0.9 or another between them, so I assume they have noticed that it varies, from the lower to the higher figure day to day, or however often they feed info in and take info out. If deaths are dropping, that indicates the infection is not raging out of control, well that is to be expected as at least half the population are trying hard not to get infected. I have not got a super computer to work out what is happening worldwide, but there are no sure ways of preventing surges / peaks and troughs. It's a mad scientist experiment.
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2020 23:25:54 GMT
Is boating a sport, a hobby, exercise or a way of life? Discuss in relation to Boris Banter of 10/05/20 compare and contrast with previous announcements broadcast on the Beeb from March 21st. Your schooldays were never wasted Bossy britches!
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Post by Andyberg on May 10, 2020 23:36:44 GMT
Numbers...where's Dianne Abbot when you need her ?π€ We have our very own posting here on TB.π Only a mere ten times less than the official figures! π Today R value is either .05 or 0.9 or another between them.
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2020 1:15:40 GMT
Stand by for more bad r
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Post by Clinton Cool on May 11, 2020 6:57:32 GMT
Numbers...where's Dianne Abbot when you need her ?π€ It's behind you!! No doubt Ms Abbott's 'r' count would be based on the number of newly borns she sees being walked by single mothers in their state sponsored prams. Extra 'r' for black kids of course.
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Post by bodger on May 11, 2020 7:06:23 GMT
The very best explanation of the numbers that are being issued by the ONS and then used in a non-mathematical manner by endless politicians, and no doubt by some of those over-educated and incompetent mandarins in Whitehall and in NHS management, was provided by Sir David Speigelhalter (an independent and very articulate statistician) on Andrew Marr on Sunday morning. He cut through all the crap, describing the TV updates as 'fatuous' because they made no attempt to draw meaningful conclusions from the numbers.
Despite the alarmist statements made by some that children can suffer from the virus he pointed out that out of 35,000 deaths, only 2 were infants, and only a very small number (about 30 if I remember correctly) were under 25, and probably had underlying conditions. The most damning fact was that the NHS has been discharging elderly patients into the community, many of them into care homes, from Covid-ridden hospitals without testing them. Unbelievable. He also suggested that if the mortality rate is indeed about 1% (which was the estimate produced after initial data came in from other countries and still appears to be valid) then at least 3.5 million people have been infected in the UK. Without a random testing programme, to establish the rate of infection among a population sample, we will never know the real figure. I am getting fed up with all the praise for 'the NHS'. The medical staff are heroes, but as usual the senior management come across, by and large, as incompetent fools.
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Post by lollygagger on May 11, 2020 7:21:12 GMT
As there is no reliable test I feel a good deal of the criticisms that centre around testing or lack of it are barking at the moon.
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Post by patty on May 11, 2020 7:57:41 GMT
. All this means that the R is meaningless. Rate of infection goes up? bad. Rate of infection goes down? good. Simples. Thats all I need to know......
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Post by bodger on May 11, 2020 11:53:17 GMT
"The most damning fact was that the NHS has been discharging elderly patients into the community, many of them into care homes, from Covid-ridden hospitals without testing them. Unbelievable." It's unbelievable that you have copied + pasted this from what I posted here yesterday!! I have no idea what you posted yesterday or where you posted it - believe it or not I, try my very best to avoid anything you contribute.
............. but it is somewhat heartening to find that you share (I assume) the opinion of myself and Sir Speigelhalter.
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Post by Gone on May 11, 2020 13:53:16 GMT
The very best explanation of the numbers that are being issued by the ONS and then used in a non-mathematical manner by endless politicians, and no doubt by some of those over-educated and incompetent mandarins in Whitehall and in NHS management, was provided by Sir David Speigelhalter (an independent and very articulate statistician) on Andrew Marr on Sunday morning. He cut through all the crap, describing the TV updates as 'fatuous' because they made no attempt to draw meaningful conclusions from the numbers.
Despite the alarmist statements made by some that children can suffer from the virus he pointed out that out of 35,000 deaths, only 2 were infants, and only a very small number (about 30 if I remember correctly) were under 25, and probably had underlying conditions. The most damning fact was that the NHS has been discharging elderly patients into the community, many of them into care homes, from Covid-ridden hospitals without testing them. Unbelievable. He also suggested that if the mortality rate is indeed about 1% (which was the estimate produced after initial data came in from other countries and still appears to be valid) then at least 3.5 million people have been infected in the UK. Without a random testing programme, to establish the rate of infection among a population sample, we will never know the real figure. I am getting fed up with all the praise for 'the NHS'. The medical staff are heroes, but as usual the senior management come across, by and large, as incompetent fools. Which is why they work for the government. When was the last time a hospital senior administrator or senior manager was sacked for being crap at their job? I donβt think it ever happens, they just carry on.....
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R number
May 11, 2020 13:53:17 GMT
via mobile
Post by Jim on May 11, 2020 13:53:17 GMT
I think jim should have an R-9 rating. Well, my wit is highly infectious, though some poor souls are Immune.π You set em up...
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2020 16:31:43 GMT
It's unbelievable that you have copied + pasted this from what I posted here yesterday!! I have no idea what you posted yesterday or where you posted it - believe it or not I, try my very best to avoid anything you contribute.
............. but it is somewhat heartening to find that you share (I assume) the opinion of myself and Sir Speigelhalter.
I find it heartening that, while thousands of UK citizens have for decades closely followed the fortunes of the denizens of Albert Square, you have, on the other hand, clearly and most assiduously followed the career of the honoured Mr Spiegelhalter. Well done you, and congratulations on choosing this moment to bring enlightenment to us all here on Thunderboat.
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Post by Mr Stabby on May 11, 2020 16:38:12 GMT
I think jim should have an R-9 rating. Well, my wit is highly infectious, though some poor souls are Immune.π You set em up... I believe you are what is commonly known as "a shining wit". Or something like that.
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R number
May 11, 2020 16:41:11 GMT
via mobile
Post by Jim on May 11, 2020 16:41:11 GMT
Well, my wit is highly infectious, though some poor souls are Immune.π You set em up... I believe you are what is commonly known as "a shining wit". Or something like that.Β Ooh! Another stuck record. You do love your vinyl don't you. π
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