|
Post by Clinton Cool on Apr 18, 2016 6:19:45 GMT
Here we go:
By 2030, the treasury report states that the U.K economy will have shrunk by 6%, following a brexit, compared to if we were to remain.
Shock, horror, we're all going to be thousands of pounds worse off. However:
In the past year close to a million workers moved to Britain from other EU countries. Around a 2% increase in the workforce. The recently introduced higher minimum wage, together with a further significant increase in the future, can only increase the 'draw' to come to Britain.
We could conservatively estimate that three quarters of inward migration comes from within the EU. It's also fair to say that a brexit would lead to a reduction in this migration.
If we assume that EU migration reduces from an annual 2% of workforce to 1% the figures suddenly look very different. By 2030 our economy, contracted by 6%, will be shared out by around 15% less people. So, everyone will be richer, not poorer.
|
|
|
Post by naughtyfox on Apr 18, 2016 7:23:36 GMT
And when Turkey joins the EU we'll see an increase in... well... what? I'm waiting for Russia and China to join the EU. Hell, might as well have Nigeria and Zimbabwe in as well. All aboard the gravy train! Agricultural subsidies all round!
I can't help thinking that Russia will be the super power in the future. What if Russia and China got together and made an AU Asian Union - would countries such as Turkey and Indonesia flock to join that?
|
|
|
Post by JohnV on Apr 18, 2016 7:58:54 GMT
Here we go: By 2030, the treasury report states that the U.K economy will have shrunk by 6%, following a brexit, compared to if we were to remain. Shock, horror, we're all going to be thousands of pounds worse off. However: SNIP< >SNIP......... shared out by around 15% less people. So, everyone will be richer, not poorer. It's the same old story.....Lies.....Damn Lies......statistics.
You have to probe at every statement by anybody to do with this issue to try and extract the tiny nut of truth they are trying to spin
Bloody politicians
|
|
|
Post by Albion on Apr 18, 2016 8:26:07 GMT
It's all standard fare of Project Fear I'm afraid. Each family will be thousands worse off; cheap air fares will disappear; mobile phone roaming will become more expensive; goods will become more expensive; food will become more expensive; the NHS will get less money, etc., etc. The way that the Remain camp hope to stop people voting to leave is to frighten them that their pocket will be massively hit affecting each and every one of them and that, what is perceived as one of the bedrocks of voting influence, the NHS, will suffer. It might well work with people who don't want/can't use their own brain and just want to be spoon fed info to tell them which way to vote. It is somewhat insulting to the rest of the country who do have the intelligence to reason through the arguments, for and against, for themselves. Roger
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2016 8:50:43 GMT
It's all standard fare of Project Fear I'm afraid. Each family will be thousands worse off; cheap air fares will disappear; mobile phone roaming will become more expensive; goods will become more expensive; food will become more expensive; the NHS will get less money, etc., etc. The way that the Remain camp hope to stop people voting to leave is to frighten them that their pocket will be massively hit affecting each and every one of them and that, what is perceived as one of the bedrocks of voting influence, the NHS, will suffer. It might well work with people who don't want/can't use their own brain and just want to be spoon fed info to tell them which way to vote. It is somewhat insulting to the rest of the country who do have the intelligence to reason through the arguments, for and against, for themselves. Roger I think you have it right regarding the IN camp,Project Fear and we have the idiot Obama this week as well,The Black George Bush to contend with. As regards the Brexit Campaign there will be a slight upset as you alluded to in your post yesterday but its nothing this country can't overcome. What has happened to Stuart Rose who is in charge of the IN campaign ? he has been shunted to the sidelines after saying that Wages would rise for workers if BREXIT was to happen. Isnt it a disgrace that George Osbourne this countries Finance Minister is apparently incapable of putting together a Financial Policy for our leaving the EU. I would hang these Bastards as traitors.
|
|
|
Post by peterboat on Apr 18, 2016 8:51:48 GMT
The leave camp are very quiet though? Cant help feel that they will start at the end picking the stay argument to pieces and not giving them time to reply? We do seem to remember what we heard last rather than the early stuff
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2016 8:58:29 GMT
The leave camp are very quiet though? Cant help feel that they will start at the end picking the stay argument to pieces and not giving them time to reply? We do seem to remember what we heard last rather than the early stuff I hope so Peter,I still have reservations about Boris Johnston but who else to turn to as Britain hasn't produced a statesman since Churchill,with Thatcher a possible exception. George Galloway has been quiet,is that a good thing?I don't know and is the RMT the only union to come out in favour of BREXIT ?Albion can maybe save me the trouble of checking.
|
|
|
Post by peterboat on Apr 18, 2016 9:14:37 GMT
The leave camp are very quiet though? Cant help feel that they will start at the end picking the stay argument to pieces and not giving them time to reply? We do seem to remember what we heard last rather than the early stuff I hope so Peter,I still have reservations about Boris Johnston but who else to turn to as Britain hasn't produced a statesman since Churchill,with Thatcher a possible exception. George Galloway has been quiet,is that a good thing?I don't know and is the RMT the only union to come out in favour of BREXIT ?Albion can maybe save me the trouble of checking. Boris can talk well so maybe he will pull it out of the bag? John a fellow boater gleefully says now that Corbyn has thrown his hat in its a done deal I couldnt reply for laughing, a more reluctant stayer in I have never seen. My daughter a labour Councillor is doing the rounds she wants out and she is carrying out a straw poll we are doing well in the voting class [elder people more likely to vote] so who knows? I am offline in a minute for the week so see you
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2016 9:17:42 GMT
Cheers Peter.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2016 19:14:46 GMT
Watching the Channel Four news tonight and hearing about this £4300 worse off figure which was published today by the Government. This thick volume with another volume to come tomorrow It seems coupled with a visit by Obama is going to make for an interesting week ahead. What has become of Sir Phillip Rose who is in charge of the IN campaign,since he admitted wages would rise as a result of BREXIT he has become the IN campaigns Lord Lucan.
|
|
|
Post by boatman on Apr 18, 2016 19:29:08 GMT
I'm beginning to think, if the 'In vote' win I won't believe or accept it.
|
|
|
Post by macwolfelee on Apr 18, 2016 20:56:37 GMT
I'm beginning to think, if the 'In vote' win I won't believe or accept it. So what will you do - start a revolution, or go and live in Spain?
BTW (to Foxy) thank you for making me laugh at a post with a lot of truth in it!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2016 21:30:33 GMT
I'm beginning to think, if the 'In vote' win I won't believe or accept it. Thats the trouble,in or out,the numbers aren't going to be convincing enough to kill the issue. Add the fact that the EU aren't going to reform and its nothing but disaster ahead. Turnout is going to be key I think and I think that might favour an out vote
|
|
|
Post by naughtyfox on Apr 19, 2016 4:19:57 GMT
When is the vote - 23rd June? Are there any places we should go on that day? Places to avoid? Will there be demonstrations? When will the results be known?
How will the voting forms be worded?
-YES I want Britain to remain in the EU. -NO I do not want Britain to leave the EU.
|
|
|
Post by Clinton Cool on Apr 19, 2016 6:52:20 GMT
I've read a bit more into this:
The calculation that households would be £4300 pa worse off following brexit disregarded any change in net inward migration that might result.
I'd suggest it's a certainty that inward migration would fall following brexit. After all, concern with migration is one of the main reasons that this referendum is taking place.
In the future, following brexit, it's unlikely that a Pole could rock up and take a job working in Aldi. A Lithuanian probably wouldn't receive a work permit to clean toilets. The Bulgarian nurse and French engineer would still receive permits, of course.
The calculation was a simple one; gdp divided by households. To disregard changes to migration patterns in this calculation proves that it's biased. More than that, it's simply wrong.
I'm amazed that the 'out' leaders haven't lept on this obvious flaw.
Hello brexit leaders, are we awake, is there anybody there??
|
|