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Post by Clinton Cool on Jun 7, 2021 7:46:56 GMT
Interesting to note that in excess of 5 million EU citizens have applied for settled status in Britain. Also, an estimated 1.5 million have returned to their home countries countries in the past 12 months. So, a total, a year ago, in excess of 6.5 million. It's interesting because the government estimated there were 'around 3 million' EU citizens living in Britain.
We can only speculate on the reasons behind such a wildly inaccurate estimate.
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Post by Mr Stabby on Jun 7, 2021 8:00:54 GMT
A real game-changer for the UK economy would be sustained increases in interest rates. Many householders have no "Plan B" to deal with this eventuality. If as looks likely we are heading for a period of relatively high inflation then increased interest rates and a collapse in property values and consumer confidence are inevitable.
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Post by thebfg on Jun 7, 2021 8:02:33 GMT
Could the growing momentum for the living wage also be a factor.
We got a 5% last year and have alrwady rejected a 2% offer this year
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Post by Telemachus on Jun 7, 2021 8:02:42 GMT
It is racist, of course. But what does racist mean, other than an oft-lobbed insult? If it means that one is making a generalisation about racial characteristics, then that (in my book) is fine. If one says “people from Africa tend to have dark skin” then that is racist, but true (and stating the bleedin obvious!). Where racism become problematic is when you take a generalisation and apply to a decision about an individual. For example “I’m not going to offer you a job. Not because I am aware of you having any personal shortcomings, but because I think that as a generalisation, people of your race are evil/lazy/dishonest/thick etc”. That is discriminating on the grounds of race, which is bad and illegal. Observing general characteristics of people of different races could also be called racist but is neither bad nor illegal. If you owned a bar and were looking for staff, would it be fair to say that you're more likely to employ an Eastern European applicant, given your generalisation, based on your experience? If so, would this not be exactly the bad/ illegal racism you describe? No I would of course judge each applicant on their merit. I think people, including you, are struggling with the concept of a macro trend vs an individual’s attributes. Both are valid concepts, but entirely different and applicable under different circumstances. A bar owner who refused to consider any British applicants would risk losing out on a great member of staff due to their prejudice.
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Post by Telemachus on Jun 7, 2021 8:05:48 GMT
Could the growing momentum for the living wage also be a factor. We got a 5% last year and have alrwady rejected a 2% offer this year I think we in the U.K. are guilty of having a very low minimum wage. I occasionally watch “wanted down under” on the daytime tellybox (the joys of being retired!) and it is notable that the spouse of the qualified worker who is often in an unqualified job (on or near minimum wage) in U.K., can get much higher pay in Australia for the same job. There, you seem to get paid for putting in the graft, not so much for your qualifications and skills.
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Post by Clinton Cool on Jun 7, 2021 8:12:42 GMT
A real game-changer for the UK economy would be sustained increases in interest rates. Many householders have no "Plan B" to deal with this eventuality. If as looks likely we are heading for a period of relatively high inflation then increased interest rates and a collapse in property values and consumer confidence are inevitable. You'd think so. However, it's in doubt. Such is the level of personal debt, particularly within mortgages, that significantly increased rates would be financially catastrophic for many. It's doubtful that any modern day government would allow this to happen. Instead it could abandon its inflation targets. The benefit to government would be that the national debt, which is mostly in fixed rates bonds, would have its value eroded by the inflation. For now governments are denying the upcoming crisis. Many of the significant price increases have been outside the scope of the retail price index. In America, which is ahead of the curve, the spike in inflation has been described as 'a temporary blip'. There's no basis for describing it in this way, the inflation drivers are real and they haven't gone away. It's kicking the can down the road; this seems to be the modern day solution to most problems. It's difficult to say exactly how this will play out at this stage but one thing is very likely, it's going to be a big one, one that makes the 2008 'crisis' appear like a walk in the park on a sunny day, in comparison.
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Post by Clinton Cool on Jun 7, 2021 8:15:47 GMT
If you owned a bar and were looking for staff, would it be fair to say that you're more likely to employ an Eastern European applicant, given your generalisation, based on your experience? If so, would this not be exactly the bad/ illegal racism you describe? No I would of course judge each applicant on their merit. I think people, including you, are struggling with the concept of a macro trend vs an individual’s attributes. Both are valid concepts, but entirely different and applicable under different circumstances. A bar owner who refused to consider any British applicants would risk losing out on a great member of staff due to their prejudice. I do understand, I'm playing devil's advocate. Others don't understand, they consider the recognition of different traits through intelligent observation and experience to be a bad thing. At the very least, if you're intelligent and make such observations, you're expected to keep them to yourself.
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Post by twbm2 on Jun 7, 2021 13:07:30 GMT
In the hospitality sector, the next phase could well be some businesses finding that their staff costs percentage of Gross Profit is no longer viable, moving staff from better paid to not paid at all.
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Post by Mr Stabby on Jun 7, 2021 13:24:22 GMT
In the hospitality sector, the next phase could well be some businesses finding that their staff costs percentage of Gross Profit is no longer viable, moving staff from better paid to not paid at all. Maybe, but then that's just what happens in a free market economy. If market forces are driving wages upwards then that just has to be dealt with, typically through raising prices. I realise that this can be counter-productive as it may well decrease the size of the customer base leading to a death spiral, but there is no mechanism in place for capping wages in the private sector.
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Post by Telemachus on Jun 7, 2021 16:33:48 GMT
In the hospitality sector, the next phase could well be some businesses finding that their staff costs percentage of Gross Profit is no longer viable, moving staff from better paid to not paid at all. In that case surely the underlying cause is that prices are too low to sustain a business paying staff a reasonable wage. It is the business model that is at fault, not the workforce expecting to be paid a reasonable living wage. It needs a cultural shift away from dirt cheap alcohol and cheapshite food, to something more along the lines of the European model. I know Brits resent paying even a tiny fraction of their income on drinking and dining out, but that has to change!
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Post by Mr Stabby on Jun 7, 2021 18:15:05 GMT
It is the "Brexit Bonus" as eastern Europeans return home, 1.3 million of them last year alone.
A member of TruckNet posted that every Saturday morning behind ASDA in Cricklewood, a Romanian-registered articulated lorry and two Romanian-registered coaches towing trailers turn up. All morning people arrive in Transit vans, load stuff onto the truck while the vans are driven away, Then around mid-day everyone jumps onto a coach and the convoy moves off, destination Bucharest. I bet this scene is recreated all over the land.
This has led to wage rises of around 25% this year alone for HGV drivers and this seems destined to continue and even accelerate as additionally around 45,000 HGV driving tests were cancelled due to Covid in the last year so there is no-one even coming through to replace "churn", let alone cover a mass exodus of the workforce.
Naturally as an HGV driver myself I can only welcome this.
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Post by Clinton Cool on Jun 7, 2021 18:24:19 GMT
In the hospitality sector, the next phase could well be some businesses finding that their staff costs percentage of Gross Profit is no longer viable, moving staff from better paid to not paid at all. In that case surely the underlying cause is that prices are too low to sustain a business paying staff a reasonable wage. It is the business model that is at fault, not the workforce expecting to be paid a reasonable living wage. It needs a cultural shift away from dirt cheap alcohol and cheapshite food, to something more along the lines of the European model. I know Brits resent paying even a tiny fraction of their income on drinking and dining out, but that has to change! I don't think the biggest problem in the hospitality is wages. OK, if a bar owner suddenly has to increase bar staff wages by 10 or 15% he or she could see that as a bit of a hit. The reality though is that staffing costs, while not insignificant, are just one of the many rising costs these businesses face. Commercial rents don't fall. Ever. They only ever go up. While there's been some relief from business rates over the past couple of years this is a cost that has rocketed over the years. Some pub owners are tied to what are probably unfair terms from breweries. They are unable to sell a a decent price because they aren't able to buy at a decent price. The truth is they are probably being ripped off but can't do anything about it. They are forced to spend thousands, sometimes tens of thousands to follow new legislation. Access for the disabled is one that springs to mind. The claim culture forces them into buying public liability insurance, the price goes up every year as this culture develops. Drinking in a pub isn't cheap, eating in a pub is expensive. Many, who used to be regulars in pubs, can no longer afford either.
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Post by Clinton Cool on Jun 7, 2021 18:27:35 GMT
It is the "Brexit Bonus" as eastern Europeans return home, 1.3 million of them last year alone. A member of TruckNet posted that every Saturday morning behind ASDA in Cricklewood, a Romanian-registered articulated lorry and two Romanian-registered coaches towing trailers turn up. All morning people arrive in Transit vans, load stuff onto the truck while the vans are driven away, Then around mid-day everyone jumps onto a coach and the convoy moves off, destination Bucharest. I bet this scene is recreated all over the land. This has led to wage rises of around 25% this year alone for HGV drivers and this seems destined to continue and even accelerate as additionally around 45,000 HGV driving tests were cancelled due to Covid in the last year so there is no-one even coming through to replace "churn", let alone cover a mass exodus of the workforce. Naturally as an HGV driver myself I can only welcome this. Do you reckon the child tax credit claims for the numerous kids living in Bucharest are cancelled before they hop onto the coach? Perhaps not, there must be lots of things to think about when moving countries. Easily forgotten about, I'd guess.
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Post by Mr Stabby on Jun 8, 2021 6:30:56 GMT
It is the "Brexit Bonus" as eastern Europeans return home, 1.3 million of them last year alone. A member of TruckNet posted that every Saturday morning behind ASDA in Cricklewood, a Romanian-registered articulated lorry and two Romanian-registered coaches towing trailers turn up. All morning people arrive in Transit vans, load stuff onto the truck while the vans are driven away, Then around mid-day everyone jumps onto a coach and the convoy moves off, destination Bucharest. I bet this scene is recreated all over the land. This has led to wage rises of around 25% this year alone for HGV drivers and this seems destined to continue and even accelerate as additionally around 45,000 HGV driving tests were cancelled due to Covid in the last year so there is no-one even coming through to replace "churn", let alone cover a mass exodus of the workforce. Naturally as an HGV driver myself I can only welcome this. Why would eastern Europeans be returning home? IR35 seems to be a major factor, combined with the geographical advantages of working in Germany, I'm sure many of them will be off there after they have regrouped.
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Post by ianali on Jun 8, 2021 6:51:04 GMT
Why would eastern Europeans be returning home? IR35 seems to be a major factor, combined with the geographical advantages of working in Germany, I'm sure many of them will be off there after they have regrouped. Is it not simply the case that Brexit has pushed many EU workers back across the channel?
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