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Post by Mr Stabby on May 1, 2020 21:35:04 GMT
There's sheer irony here in someone choosing Fat Freddy as his avatar applauding Government curtailment of civil liberty and effectively placing civilians under house arrest. I can only assume you chose the avatar at random without ever having read any of Gilbert Shel ton's counterculture comics. SheIton not Shel ton. Yes, I can do that too but on this occasion I couldn't be bothered.
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 21:35:45 GMT
Fair enough !
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 21:37:04 GMT
Yes, but how are they working out the R number when they don't know how many people have caught it in the past and built up antibodies? Some estimates say 50% of the population have probably had the virus. If 50% of those who get the virus show no symptoms then that estimate may well prove correct. It also relies on random testing rather than just testing those who have been exposed in high risk situations. The real R number will probably be higher in densly populated areas like London but much lower in rural areas. The fact is that the data simply isn't good enough to draw any strong conclusions. We may never know how many people caught it by the end of the year unless a reliable antibody test can be produced and a good random sample of the population are tested. If they do come up with a vaccine (which may well come with it's own risks) then surely an antibody test should be used first to determine whether the person has already got the antibodies or not? 1) the best estimate I have seen for the actual number who may have had Corona virus in the UK is thought to be about 1.6 million as of 28th April. that would tie in fairly well with the little that is known about the death rate to give the total estimated all area deaths of 30+ thousand As regards antibody testing, there still seems to be doubt about antibodies being present in all of those who have tested positive at the time of infection ..... all not helped by doubts about the accuracy of tests The current data shows that about 25% of those who have actually been tested for the virus (out of about 650 thousand) have been positive. That may be an indicator as to the percentage of the population who will have built up immunity (well sadly not those who died). The trouble with the virus tests is that as most of us eventually get the virus and built up immunity, less and less people will show up as positive. Random antibody tests would give us meaningful data. The ONS death figures show big increases in deaths overall but it's not clear as to how much is due to the virus and how much is due to the side effects of the lockdown. I have no doubt both are a factor.
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Post by Clinton Cool on May 1, 2020 22:41:05 GMT
Our verrrrrrry loud next door neighbours(moved in in Feb after our quiet,lovely neighbours left)-went out before 5pm.Yes,I was peering out of the window before 'Pointless' started.Thought it was odd as the two kiddies were in jamas & dressing gowns.They cannot be still shopping,so can only imagine they are visiting folk-not what they should be doing !Sorry if I sound like Blakey,but these folk annoy me.They come back from Asda with bags of shopping,but then have freebie shopping delivered(more than once)especially as the man is working very long days as a driver 5 days a week.There are a number of 80+ and 90 + folk in the road who are not getting the same care.Some folk really know how to play the system.😡 But if society tells one group of people often enough that they are more important, or more worthy, or both, than other groups, the favoured groups will start to believe that.
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Post by phil70 on May 1, 2020 23:00:59 GMT
Hmm, sat in Tesco car park it's as busy as before the lockdown. I think people have had enough sitting around - it does your heed in after a while. Two weeks ago...barely a car here, really, 4 or 5 but today about 200. Hmm, Chris has been shielding for the last 7 weeks with 5 more to go. Today a letter from the ozzy (Addenbrookes) rocked up with instructions to shield for a further 12 weeks. There are many in the same position . It's doing my head in but thankfully by and large Chris is coping Phil
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Post by Boaty on May 2, 2020 8:57:59 GMT
Right. But you do understand that the lockdown will cause huge increases in unemployment, home repossessions, domestic violence, depression and suicide, deaths from undiagnosed and untreated cancers, and lead to tens of thousands of doctors and nurses losing their jobs because there won't be the money to pay their wages if people aren't working and paying tax? You do understand that. right? As I said I will continue to support the lockdown fully as I believe things will get better. The lockdown will be eased as infection numbers drop and we will all be able to do more, albeit with social distancing still at the core. You see I really do have faith. I remain optimistic and really do believe all will be well in the end, even though some permanent change is inevitable. So, it is not a question of "understanding that" it is a matter of not believing it. As I said I have faith whilst clearly you do not. No more to say. I'm out.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2020 9:06:35 GMT
As I said I will continue to support the lockdown fully as I believe things will get better. The lockdown will be eased as infection numbers drop and we will all be able to do more, albeit with social distancing still at the core. You see I really do have faith. I remain optimistic and really do believe all will be well in the end, even though some permanent change is inevitable. So, it is not a question of "understanding that" it is a matter of not believing it. As I said I have faith whilst clearly you do not. No more to say. I'm out. It was a genuine question.
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Post by Boaty on May 2, 2020 9:07:49 GMT
As I said I will continue to support the lockdown fully as I believe things will get better. The lockdown will be eased as infection numbers drop and we will all be able to do more, albeit with social distancing still at the core. You see I really do have faith. I remain optimistic and really do believe all will be well in the end, even though some permanent change is inevitable. So, it is not a question of "understanding that" it is a matter of not believing it. As I said I have faith whilst clearly you do not. No more to say. I'm out. It was a genuine question. Sorry Blacksheep, responded to wrong post!
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Post by Boaty on May 2, 2020 9:09:16 GMT
I'm human, I have to believe in something positive. Just because something has been in the past does not mean it will be so in the future. I truly believe that and that is why I will continue to support the lockdown fully. Right. But you do understand that the lockdown will cause huge increases in unemployment, home repossessions, domestic violence, depression and suicide, deaths from undiagnosed and untreated cancers, and lead to tens of thousands of doctors and nurses losing their jobs because there won't be the money to pay their wages if people aren't working and paying tax? You do understand that. right? As I said I will continue to support the lockdown fully as I believe things will get better. The lockdown will be eased as infection numbers drop and we will all be able to do more, albeit with social distancing still at the core. You see I really do have faith. I remain optimistic and really do believe all will be well in the end, even though some permanent change is inevitable. So, it is not a question of "understanding that" it is a matter of not believing it. As I said I have faith whilst clearly you do not. No more to say.
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Post by JohnV on May 2, 2020 10:19:58 GMT
I believe that people who flout the lockdown should be castigated with blunt, rusty castigators
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Post by lollygagger on May 2, 2020 15:40:29 GMT
For the lockdown to work it has to slow the spread, not stop it? So that kind of requires more and more people to get out there and catch it doesn't it? More than half of us? Are those volunteering to be first rather than waiting a while for possible treatments to improve doing just that? If one said for instance, open all shops of any kind, or open all beaches and parks on a particular day, I'd have thought that would encourage sharp peaks more than people just gradually drifting back to opening shops and using spaces while somehow maintaining distancing. What happens 3 weeks after the day they start running commuter trains? That'll be a big one.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2020 15:43:41 GMT
For the lockdown to work it has to slow the spread, not stop it? Why?
If the lockdown stops the spread why is this a bad thing?
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Post by lollygagger on May 2, 2020 16:32:35 GMT
For the lockdown to work it has to slow the spread, not stop it? Why?
If the lockdown stops the spread why is this a bad thing?
Because that way the lockdown can never end.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2020 16:39:59 GMT
Why?
If the lockdown stops the spread why is this a bad thing?
Because that way the lockdown can never end. Several countries have low or very low numbers now and have either come out of lockdown or are preparing to. The end is most likely to come from a new treatment or a vaccination along with 'test, track and trace', same has happened with most of the new modern viruses over the last 30 years or so. I'd be surprised if this one was different.
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Post by lollygagger on May 2, 2020 16:51:58 GMT
Because that way the lockdown can never end. Several countries have low or very low numbers now and have either come out of lockdown or are preparing to. The end is most likely to come from a new treatment or a vaccination along with 'test, track and trace', same has happened with most of the new modern viruses over the last 30 years or so. I'd be surprised if this one was different. We'll see. They may have a lot less to deal with than us. We're pretty rife with it because we didn't get on top. Frankly I will NOT be locked down until a vaccine MAY be developed in a year or 18 months (they really need 4-5 years, you do understand that? - you can't really speed these things up that much by suddenly chucking money into research you should have been funding better in the past).
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